TheUnemploymentDojo's Blog

Strategic Bystander Wins $1000……

Posted on: January 17, 2012

I was at the local the other day, and i saw a man spend $300 to purchase $1.00 scratch off tickets with a top prize of $1000. I am always amused to see people make such investments as i would really like to see what their return on investment will be. The bucket had roughly 2000 tickets left so really the odds of winning the $1000 ticket are 1 in 2000. By investing $300(that’s 300 tickets) he had a 15% or a probability of 0.15 (300 in 2000)chance of winning the top prize. So off he went to the corner with his basket and as he started scratching one ticket after the other i saw his eyes widen. He then asked for a drink and at one point he was consuming the drinks way faster than he was scratching . 250 down and he hadn’t won a dime. He was determined and kept at it slowly sipping his whiskey then he hit a $100 ticket and a $50 one though excited,it was not the top prize he was looking for. On he continued…..297…..298, 299…..300! No luck. $150 in the hole. Angry frustrated and contemplating how he was going to explain to his wife how he managed to go grocery shopping, and come back with no groceries,drunk and with half the money needed more than creativity! It needed another $50 in drinks and $100 in scratch tickets.(Bad Move!)

A bystander who was watching from a distance decided to invest a mere $250. That’s 250 tickets! Scratched of the 1st one….2nd third…..nothing so far then all hell broke loose on ticket number 18, wailed like the Bob Marley band!Someone actually was about to call 911! He had won the coveted $1000…..just like that! $250 investment returns $1000 that’s a 400% return on investment. Boy was i excited and i’m not even the one that won! The math is simple. After 400 tickets had been eliminated, his chances of winning had gone up by 0.625% (without factoring in the additional $100)despite the fact that bystander used $150 less. He bought the bar a round of drinks and left for home(smart man) leaving the other one singing in the corner i think more out of being drunk than frustration.

Ok 2 Major  lessons  i learned, success is simply observing and doing where one man left off! 2nd don’t gamble money you don’t have! 3rd when you win, don’t get greedy!

 

Take care and be a strategic proactive bystander!

Lee Kariuki

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Lee Kariuki
1-888-MY-ETHER ext. 04466282

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